Predicts 15-20 years of severe winters
~by Denise O’Brien Van, special to GreeneCountyNewsOnline
Iowa State University Extension climatologist Elwynn Taylor told about 20 Greene County farmers that they can manage risk in their row crop operations by paying close attention to historic weather and market trends.
Well known for explaining weather phenomena to Iowans, Taylor gave his weather predictions for the coming years on Tuesday, March 3, at an afternoon seminar sponsored by West Central Cooperative at the Jefferson Elks Club.
Citing historical data, Taylor said Iowa’s weather was relatively mild from the 1950s through the 1990s, “but it is now getting harsher. Climate risk in agriculture is likely to be greater during the next 20 years.
“We are in for 15 or 20 years of severe winters,” he said.
‘Worst’ years: Taylor predicted that 2025 will be a “worst year,” for farming: The infamous year 1936 when severe drought withered corn in the fields following a winter that was one long blizzard was a “worst” and so was 1847, the first recorded in the U.S., he said.
He urged his listeners to use historical and forecast data, as well as market trends, to calculate their production risks. “Ask yourselves, ‘What would I do if the volatile 1980s (when Iowa’s farm crisis occurred) come again?’’’ he urged. Farmers who have data for their 1980s operations can analyze them to minimize their risk.
“You need to know the risk for your farm, your area, your county, your state and the nation,” he said.
Three other things Taylor said farmers must know when planning a crop: The number of growing-degree days (optimum heat units needed for development), precipitation and heat stress (too much heat for the normal development process).
“Then you plot from your own history,” he said.
“Risk has numbers. If you know the numbers, you’ll know how much to commit” when planting and marketing a crop.
He noted that, since 1972, what Iowa farmers made or lost on their annual crops varied by only a nickel.
“The Iowa farmer sells corn for the cost of production. Agriculture is the only industry that is happy to see its product for cost. Every other industry wants to make a profit, although sometimes we do make a profit by accident.
“Can we solve this problem by (risk) management?” he asked. “Yes, we can.”
Climate change: Speaking to the issue of climate change, Taylor said weather scientists have been asking questions about it for the past 50 years: How much? How fast? How come?
“We still don’t know the answers,” he said, noting that carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere has increased dramatically since the 1960s, mostly due to the burning of fossil fuels, which are a nonrenewable source of energy. Burning them contributes to the increased carbon dioxide levels.
Carbon dioxide plays a vital role in regulating the earth’s temperature, which is warming because of the higher levels.
Agriculture can solve the climate change problem by providing renewable fuel, ethanol, Taylor said, adding, “There is no other viable solution at this time.
“How much ethanol do we need to produce to lower carbon dioxide?” he asked. “If we put one-third of our row crop land into producing energy, just like we did when we powered horses with row crops, it would let us agree with nature and lower the carbon dioxide levels.”
When horses powered farm production in the first half of the 20th century, farmers used about one-third of their grain crops to feed them, Taylor explained.
Currently, about 20 percent of Iowa’s corn crop is used to produce ethanol, Taylor said
Taylor said he believes that in the next 10 to 15 to years, corn–the grain, the stalks and the cobs– will become the choice to make biofuel.
